Matthew Kroenig

THE SUBJECT:
A Time to Attack offers an assessment of the policies available to counter the development of Iran's nuclear program.

THE SCRIBE:
Associate Professor at Georgetown University, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, life member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and nuclear proliferation expert, Matthew Kroenig has authored (or served as editor of) five books: The Handbook of National Legislatures: A Global Survey, Exporting the Bomb: Technology Transfer and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons, The Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation, A Time to Attack: The Looming Iranian Nuclear Threat, and Nuclear Posture and Nonproliferation Policy: Causes and Consequences for the Spread of Nuclear Weapons.

THE STYLE:
Kroenig's analysis begins with a review of Iran's objectives, followed by a series of policy alternatives: covert operations, diplomacy, sanctions, allowing Iran become a nuclear power, or attacking Iran. These chapters are followed by a detailed comparison of the two most plausible alternatives and his resulting conclusion.

THE SUBSTANCE:
"Preventing nuclear proliferation has been a top objective of US national security policy for decades. A strike on Iran would contribute to this goal by halting the Iranian nuclear threat, removing a motivation for future nuclear proliferation in the region, eliminating a potential supplier of sensitive nuclear technology around the world, bolstering the global nonproliferation regime, and sending a message that the United States is willing to use force to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. It is possible that a strike would contribute to proliferation in some cases by making leaders believe they need nuclear weapons to defend themselves against American power, but this would almost certainly be outweighed by the nonproliferation benefits.

THE SPECIFICS:
Chapter 7 (Which is Worse) draws a comparison between the information compiled in chapter 5 (Iran with the Bomb) and chapter 6 (Bombing Iran). Kroenig's comparison focuses on nine objectives: protecting the US homeland, preventing nuclear proliferation, combating terrorism, promoting regional stability, containing military expenditures, securing the oil supply, maintaining freedom of action, promoting regime change in Iran, and burnishing America's reputation.

THE SCOOP:
Kroenig favors US intervention in Iran, and he does so with the overarching aim of limiting global nuclear proliferation. However, even with the nine objectives outlined above, his case is not open and shut: terrorism could proliferate more through US action by becoming a rallying cry for jihadist groups, short-term military expenditures (such as a military strike) may grow to unforeseen proportions, and America's reputation could be just as easily tarnished instead of burnished through its actions. Nevertheless, Kroenig recognizes these possibilities in his concluding statements in both chapters 7 and 8, and admits there are no good options:

"We should seek to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis through diplomacy if at all possible. But if that effort does not succeed, the United States must take military action. We should work in advance to form an international coalition, conduct a limited strike on Iran's key nuclear facilities, pull back and absorb an inevitable round of Iranian retaliation, and seek to de-escalate the crisis. This is not a good option. But when compared to the dangers of living with a nuclear-armed Iran for decades to come, it is the least bad option."… (mais)