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About the Author

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. His books include Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction and Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).

Obras por Philip E. Tetlock

Associated Works

Taking Sides: Clashing Views in Social Psychology (2006) — Contribuidor, algumas edições19 exemplares

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Interesting story of a research program organised to try to identify people with great forecasting skills and understand what kind of thinking helped them be this way, or improve.

A much more important ans very interesting final few chapters on the broader space of trying to predict events in the future, probability distributions, and complexity. The question about the limits of forecasting is commendable and perhaps one of the most important points of the book. We can talk about knowledge and prediction within a certain timeframe but beyond that it is a completely different situation and the game changes and its impossible to really
look ahead that far.
… (mais)
 
Assinalado
yates9 | 36 outras críticas | Feb 28, 2024 |
Voorspellen is moeilijk, vooral als het om de toekomst gaat. Deze uitspraak wordt algemeen toegeschreven aan Niels Bohr, de Deense natuurkundige. Toch meent Philip Tetlock dat het wel degelijk mogelijk is over bepaalde onderwerpen een adequate toekomstvoorspelling te doen. Sterker nog, sommige mensen kunnen dat zo goed dat hij ze supervoorspellers noemt. Omdat supervoorspellen mij een heel handige vaardigheid in het crisismanagement lijkt, las ik Tetlock’s boek. Eens checken of er iets af te kijken valt.

En ja, dat is er. Supervoorspellers gaat zowel over de techniek van het voorspellen als wel de persoonlijke eigenschappen die daar bij horen. Daar steek je altijd iets van op als crisismanager. Ik heb daarom geprobeerd de rode lijn uit het boek te filteren en hier samen te vatten.

Dat viel niet mee. Tetlock gooit op z’n zachtst gezegd alles door elkaar. Hij maakt er een soort puzzel van, wier stukjes weliswaar allemaal aanwezig zijn maar niet persé in een logische volgorde. Hij lardeert dat dan weer wel met tal van voorbeelden en anekdotes uit zijn onderzoekspraktijk, wat het een levendig boek om te lezen maakt.

Dus zeker geen verloren tijd, al helemaal niet als hij tussen de regels door over de controverse tussen Klein en Kahneman begint (failure to disagree, eerder besproken in dit blog) en zijn gedachten laat varen over Black Swans en Taleb’s mening over Supervoorspellers. Dat vind ik persoonlijk leuke extra’s die dit boek verbindt met blogs als Kahneman’s Ruis, Het Onwaarschijnlijkheidsprincipe, Taleb’s Toeval en The Black Swan. Lees de hele bespreking op mijn boekenblog https://www.rizoomes.nl/psychologie/supervoorspellers-een-boekrecensie/
… (mais)
 
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Rizoomes | 36 outras críticas | Feb 25, 2024 |
The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times… (mais)
 
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conflict | 36 outras críticas | Aug 31, 2022 |
In the end hits turned out to be advertising for the business the authors created. I notice that their website does not abide by their ethidcs espoused in this book about showing the record of past predictions. You have to go to archive.org for that. Business has different rules to academia, clearly.
 
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Paul_S | 36 outras críticas | Aug 2, 2021 |

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