Big Data and high-powered computer simulation and modeling in politically perilous times
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1proximity1
Do cutting-edge computer modelled simulations applied to economic and political affairs help or hinder our seeing things clearly? Or are they a "wash,"--neither significantly helpful or harmful?
In what ways are these techniques now being used?
Some thoughts and speculation around these issues.
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I suspect that it is safe to assume that in all likelihood, for months now--and at least ever since the national parties' nominating-conventions closed by designating their candidates for the presidential election--large institutional investment firms have been running their state-of-the-art computer-model simulations, aiming at projecting market movement probabilities for each of a wide range of assumptions as they track, plot and enter the rises and falls in daily and weekly opinion survey polls of voters' intentions--in some cases their own private unpublished polls. Banks, insurance firms, currency traders and hedge funds around the world would all be trying to discern the most likely short and mid-term consequences of each of the various scenarios they model.
Shouldn't we also suppose that, in addition to these efforts, the intelligence agencies of a certain number of countries would in all likelihood be trying to do the same kind of modeling and projections as well as simulating various scenarios by which their allies and adversaries react to the different possible outcomes?
E.g. : Clinton wins and Trump graciously concedes; Clinton wins and Trump claims the election was stolen and calls for resistance to the new administration or the converse of these. Clinton's or Trump's victory is quickly followed by a major terrorist attack or market slump. All sorts of scenarios could be modeled and tested, their projections scrutinized and debated and re-run again and again with variations in details--an assassination here, a government vote of no-confidence there, an unexpected bank collapse, country X invades country Y. How would each of the candidates respond? What would other nations' governments do?
How useful are these simulations?
Who produces them and for whom? With whom are they shared?--if anyone. Would it be useful if, for example, the U.N.'s five permanent security council member states regularly convened a standing committee at which the results of these simulations are shared (weekly, monthly, quarterly?) compared and discussed? Does this already take place? If so, among whom, how often and since when?
If, as we might suppose, "our own"--to the extent that they are "our own"--intelligence agencies routinely engage in such simulations and projections, do they include such scenarios as, for example, the possible election of a new president who the agencies' chiefs themselves regard with deep reservations for the new predident's competence? Would they have provisional plans for a case in which they felt obliged, for the sake of the safety of the nation or their own agencies, to withold certain information from the new president?
In such a case, would, could, the agency directors confide in each other?--do they already do so for contingency planning? Could they--in a real case, rather than a simulation-- confide in a member of the legislative branch? The supreme court?
How can Congress, the courts or the executive branch (the office of the president) know that among the various data models and simulations there aren't a number in which they are excluded out of some well or ill-founded concern for the security of the governmemt or the nation itself?
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■ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modeling_and_simulation
■ "The Gaming of Policy and the Politics of Gaming: A ... - science impact" : https://scienceimpact.mit.edu/sites/default/files/documents/The%20Gaming%20of%20...
■
The Political Machine 2016 :
http://www.politicalmachine.com/
■ Models, Simulations, and Games — A Survey - Rand :
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reports/2008/R1060.pdf
■ "The Rise of Games and High-Performance Computing for Modeling and Simulation" :
(excerpts / Chapter 4 : "Defense modelling, Simulation and games" :
https://www.nap.edu/read/12816/chapter/6
In what ways are these techniques now being used?
Some thoughts and speculation around these issues.
---------------------
I suspect that it is safe to assume that in all likelihood, for months now--and at least ever since the national parties' nominating-conventions closed by designating their candidates for the presidential election--large institutional investment firms have been running their state-of-the-art computer-model simulations, aiming at projecting market movement probabilities for each of a wide range of assumptions as they track, plot and enter the rises and falls in daily and weekly opinion survey polls of voters' intentions--in some cases their own private unpublished polls. Banks, insurance firms, currency traders and hedge funds around the world would all be trying to discern the most likely short and mid-term consequences of each of the various scenarios they model.
Shouldn't we also suppose that, in addition to these efforts, the intelligence agencies of a certain number of countries would in all likelihood be trying to do the same kind of modeling and projections as well as simulating various scenarios by which their allies and adversaries react to the different possible outcomes?
E.g. : Clinton wins and Trump graciously concedes; Clinton wins and Trump claims the election was stolen and calls for resistance to the new administration or the converse of these. Clinton's or Trump's victory is quickly followed by a major terrorist attack or market slump. All sorts of scenarios could be modeled and tested, their projections scrutinized and debated and re-run again and again with variations in details--an assassination here, a government vote of no-confidence there, an unexpected bank collapse, country X invades country Y. How would each of the candidates respond? What would other nations' governments do?
How useful are these simulations?
Who produces them and for whom? With whom are they shared?--if anyone. Would it be useful if, for example, the U.N.'s five permanent security council member states regularly convened a standing committee at which the results of these simulations are shared (weekly, monthly, quarterly?) compared and discussed? Does this already take place? If so, among whom, how often and since when?
If, as we might suppose, "our own"--to the extent that they are "our own"--intelligence agencies routinely engage in such simulations and projections, do they include such scenarios as, for example, the possible election of a new president who the agencies' chiefs themselves regard with deep reservations for the new predident's competence? Would they have provisional plans for a case in which they felt obliged, for the sake of the safety of the nation or their own agencies, to withold certain information from the new president?
In such a case, would, could, the agency directors confide in each other?--do they already do so for contingency planning? Could they--in a real case, rather than a simulation-- confide in a member of the legislative branch? The supreme court?
How can Congress, the courts or the executive branch (the office of the president) know that among the various data models and simulations there aren't a number in which they are excluded out of some well or ill-founded concern for the security of the governmemt or the nation itself?
---------------
■ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modeling_and_simulation
■ "The Gaming of Policy and the Politics of Gaming: A ... - science impact" : https://scienceimpact.mit.edu/sites/default/files/documents/The%20Gaming%20of%20...
■
The Political Machine 2016 :
http://www.politicalmachine.com/
■ Models, Simulations, and Games — A Survey - Rand :
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reports/2008/R1060.pdf
■ "The Rise of Games and High-Performance Computing for Modeling and Simulation" :
(excerpts / Chapter 4 : "Defense modelling, Simulation and games" :
https://www.nap.edu/read/12816/chapter/6
2Cecrow
Sounds like the "expert systems" concept. Used in hospitals, doctor feeds symptoms into the computer and it spits out suggestions. Probably about as good as google for accuracy, but might suggest ideas that hadn't occurred to the doctor.
Probably similar results in this case. Good for brainstorming, not great for prediction or guaranteed accuracy. We'll never have the Foundation to the degree Isaac Asimov envisioned.
Probably similar results in this case. Good for brainstorming, not great for prediction or guaranteed accuracy. We'll never have the Foundation to the degree Isaac Asimov envisioned.
3DinadansFriend
I'm not sure "The Foundation" will ever exist. What I am most curious about is whether "Consciousness" in the self aware, human pattern can ever be electronically mimicked to the degree that humans have it? Is manipulative ability which can be mimicked by machines, who may be better at it, the same as "Consciousness?" Or, as I hope, is our awareness of the universe not a thing which can be electronically mimicked? There is a theory which states that we will have a successful feedback loop between the outside world and the computer mimicking our relationship with the world by about 2030CE.
