Asia's Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific (original 2014; edição 2015)

Eminently readable, but this will no redefine anyone's conception of Great Power politics or the like, the way Kaplan's brilliant "The Coming Anarchy" did. Good primer on the disputes on the South China without getting too bogged down by minutia. The geopolitical risk of most of the smaller Asian states being "Finlandized" by a waving China and a waning America is probably the biggest take-away. The analogy of the South China Sea today and the Caribbean at the beginning of the 20th century was particularly well-done. The differences between naval conflicts and land conflicts were also interesting - apart from North Korea, there is little risk of a major conflict in Asia, Kaplan argues, because water inhibits and pacifies. Being harder to control and harder to traverse, the maritime boundaries are less likely to be violated. Not entirely sure if he's correct, but history seems to be confirming his hypothesis, at least for now.

Personally, I found Kaplan's insight into Vietnam to be the most interesting. I was unaware of how much Indic influences there were in Vietnam. Furthermore, he brings to the forefront the historical animosity between Vietnam and China, which is something all-too-easy to overlook. Like most Westerns I'm guilty of thinking of Vietnam primarily in terms of the Vietnam War, but Kaplan does an excellent job of describing just how small a part that is in the collective psyche of modern Vietnamese culture. "Vietnamese harbor relatively few sensitivities about the American War precisely because they won it."

The bits on Malaysia were interesting, particularly the role political Islam has played in unifying a land with no particularly powerful nationalist sentiment or ethnic cohesion. The relationships between ethnic Malays and Chinese was very interesting to explore. The Philippines, by contrast, comes off pretty horribly: "A ramshackle Empire ruled from Manila". Clearly not a culture nor a government Kaplan is particularly fond of. I don't know enough about the Philippines to assess his assessment, but it certainly comes off as the embarrassing failure of Southeast Asia, economically, politically and even culturally. Very harsh.

I knew a lot about Singapore before reading this book, and Kaplan unfortunately did little to advance my knowledge. Most of the chapter on Singapore is an elongated defense of Lee Kuan Yew's semi-dictatorial governance, with appeals to Mill and Berlin. Not that I particularly disagreed with him - it is difficult to argue in the face of Singapore's success - but it was a bit odd. The most interesting bits were the comparisons between the autocrats and the monarchies of the Middle East, and how the monarchies are actually coming off better, perhaps due to an inherited political legitimacy, making them more willing to be flexible.



The bits on Taiwan and China, while interesting, were not particularly revolutionary. Kaplan does a lot of work to rehabilitate the image of Chiang Kai-shek, but that's a massive historical undertaking in its own right. A key takeaway is that Communism is not necessarily the source of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. If anything, Communism might be tempering more nationalistic influences, and sudden democratization could exacerbate tensions, at least in the short-run.

Overall, if you want a quick-and-dirty survey of the region, I'd recommend this. Well-written, well-informed. Kaplan continues to have my dream job of traveling all over the world and writing about international relations.

One day.
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A little military heavy, particularly in the beginning, this book gives a quick overview of the geopolitical scene while providing interesting relevant histories of the governments as well. ( )

I was not aware of the importance of the South China Sea, which to China's rise is as important as the Caribbean was to post-Civil War America's.

Nice summary of the key players: Vietnam (most threatened), Malaysia (least), Singapore, Philippines, and Taiwan.

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The South China Sea and the end of a stable Pacific