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Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems (2016)

por Didier Sornette

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The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.… (mais)
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An important technical text that evalutes the dynamics of market crashes, through simulation and mathematical modeling.

Thr text is also confusignly written, disorienting in structure, so that by the end you are not sure what to take away to your everyday life. ( )
  yates9 | Feb 28, 2024 |
Most interesting is the last chapter. He uses the techniques of the previous chapters to project that if the current global faster-than-exponential growth continues we will arrive at a singularity at about the year 2050. Since there cannot be an actual singularity, this predicts the end of the faster-than-exponential growth of the past few hundred years. We have been saying for about 50 years that this cannot go on. He offers a new theory much better than the Limits to Growth book.

But note that the transition does not need to be completed in the next thirty or so years. As we gradually reduce our global growth to less than exponential we gradually push off the predicted singularity point into the future.

The even bigger picture is that the above is based on growth of population and current use of resources. But solar energy will be practically unlimited forever and there is no limit to our ability to develop new techniques for producing more useful products from the finite resources of the planet. Once we stabilize population we can continually increase wealth - the satisfaction of wants - forever. ( )
  johnclaydon | Mar 25, 2022 |
Somehow compelling despite being almost impenetrably opaque. Analogies are verbally drawn between market finance and all sorts of modern physical processes, but the mathematics remains somewhat underwhelming while remaining inscrutable. Much time is devoted to data-fitting apparently arbitrary curves upon past events with parameters which depend very sensitively upon the actual particulars of the financial crash in question - severely reducing the predictive capacity.

Nonetheless, an interesting book that deserves to be carefully read. ( )
1 vote qubex | Aug 9, 2013 |
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The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

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