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The New Cold War: Putin's Russia and the Threat to the West

por Edward Lucas

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In the 1990s, Russia was the sick man of Europe, but the rise to power of former KGB officer Vladimir Putin in 1999 coincided with a huge hike in world oil and gas prices, and after Yeltsin's downfall Putin set about re-establishing Russian autocracy. Now with its massive gas and oil reserves Russia has not only paid off its debts but amassed huge cash reserves which it is investing in easily accessible European businesses. Putin's Russia is hostile to open debate. Critics inside Russia such as the journalist Anna Politkovskaya, and opponents abroad such as the defector Alexander Litvinenko, a British subject, have been assassinated. Russia has threatened to target its nuclear missiles on America's allies in eastern Europe. It has resumed the military bullying of its neighbours, including repeated airspace violations; its generals play war games involving the recapture of the Baltic states. These are familiar tactics, but a whole new breed of Kremlin dirty tricks is still more sinister. The cyber-attacks on Estonia in May 2007 showed Russia was ready to wipe a country off the online map. Russiais stitching up Europe's gas market, giving it huge influence both within and on Europe.… (mais)
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I read the second revision of this book which was published in 2014, the first edition was published in 2008. The book details how Russian president Vladimir Putin came to power and how he used this power to increase his control over the all aspects of Russian life between 1999 and 2008. Lucas warned in his first edition how he could see Putin's push for more power going and how, if the rest of the world, specifically the EU didn't stand up to him he would only become more of a menace. As it turns out, most of the predictions were accurate and second edition expands on what Putin's next steps will be. The book is pretty easy to read and although I largely agree with the author's position I do worry that some of the steps he advocates seriously risk armed conflict between NATO and Russia, something I'm sure no one wants. ( )
  Brian. | Apr 9, 2021 |
If you want a very detailed account of what has been happening economically and politically in Russia since Putin came to power (and Lucas sees Putin as still in control, though he is no longer president), then this book should work for you.

Among the areas Lucas covers:
1. the decline in freedom since Yeltsin - which apparently the people in Russia are willing to put up with because there is also less chaos and more economic security
2. although he does not think that Russia will try to regain the whole of its lost empire, or that it is militarily a threat to the west, he talks about bullying tactics against some of the smaller nations, particularly those like Estonia and Georgia, who seem to be moving in the direction of democracy (Estonia more firmly than Georgia).
3. Increased oil wealth, and control of a lot of oil resources has given Russia a lot of leverage.

For me the book became tedious very quickly, because, as I said, it is mostly a listing of all the numerous ways that Russia is acting like a thug of a country. He doesn't really get into why he thinks Russia has gone in that direction, other than a desire for stability. And he doesn't say anything about any counter trends. I don't know what biases, if any, he brings to the analysis. His very brief discussion at the end about how the west ought to react seemed reasonable enough. He doesn't advocate shutting off western contact or investment, since isolation can lead to paranoid behavior and corruption. However, he points to behavior like cutting off oil supplies to the Ukraine, and suggests that if Russia is to be part of the European economic community it should have to play by the rules of that community, and not have companies that are supposedly private, but then operate as a branch of the government and not deliver on it's contracts.

As I read more and more I kept thinking, "you have to be the change you want in the world." This was particularly true when reading a section about how Russia uses the excuse that it has only done things that the west has also done. Lucas argues that though the west does these things, there are also protests that are allowed to occur, and he talks about the guilt in German over the holocaust, while, according to him, there is little guilt over the things that were done in the Soviet Union to ethnic minorities, political dissidents, etc. That feels very lame to me, knowing that, guilt or not, the U.S. has been very involved with interference with the political structures of other countries for a very long time.

His point is well made, that Russian school children are being taught to regret the breakup of the Soviet Union, rather than about what can be improved now. I don't know if there is truly a hardening in Russia towards totalitarianism or whether it was simply naive to expect instant democracy and western style freedom in a country that went from the czar to a repressive communist regime. This book didn't give me any more basis to decide that than I had before I read it. ( )
  solla | May 15, 2009 |
This book (packed with names, facts and the opinions of the writer) offers an analysis of some aspects of contemporary Russian politics and their influence on international politics and economics. Although it is written by a journalist is not easy to read as it is very dense. The book seems to be well researched and the writer offers many sources which can be followed up. ( )
  alalba | Apr 30, 2009 |
Yesterday, the 27th of January I've attended the Round Table "Russia and the West. New cold war?" held at ISPI on the occasion of the italian release of the book by Edward Lucas "The New Cold War: Putin's Russia and the Threat to the West", published by "Università Bocconi Editore".

Attended as speakers: Aldo Ferrari, from ISPI and Ca' Foscari University of Venice, the author Edward Lucas from The Economist and the ambassador Sergio Romano from Corriere della Sera.
Intolerance of dissent, open hostility towards the closest more democratic countries and a selective use of energy in order to divide the West are making Russia a danger, according to Edward Lucas.
Putin's Russia has been on a collision course with the West, but Europe and America seem to have not realised that. Under the label of "sovereign democracy" is developing an authoritarian system, the bearer of an antidemocratic and anti western ideology, not free from imperialist temptations, as demonstrated by the attack on Georgia in August 2008 and the trial of strength with the ' Ukraine for gas supplies. The murders of Anna Politkovskaya and Aleksandr Litvinenko, relevant due to the echo that they had in the West more than for their singularity, rather demonstrate the determination of the Russian regime not to tolerate dissent.
Much of the developement of these delicate relashionship will greatly depend on the President Barack Obama and the US orientation....

http://massimilianomauriello.blogspot.com/2009/01/russia-and-west-new-cold-war-p...
  maxreader | Feb 5, 2009 |
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In the 1990s, Russia was the sick man of Europe, but the rise to power of former KGB officer Vladimir Putin in 1999 coincided with a huge hike in world oil and gas prices, and after Yeltsin's downfall Putin set about re-establishing Russian autocracy. Now with its massive gas and oil reserves Russia has not only paid off its debts but amassed huge cash reserves which it is investing in easily accessible European businesses. Putin's Russia is hostile to open debate. Critics inside Russia such as the journalist Anna Politkovskaya, and opponents abroad such as the defector Alexander Litvinenko, a British subject, have been assassinated. Russia has threatened to target its nuclear missiles on America's allies in eastern Europe. It has resumed the military bullying of its neighbours, including repeated airspace violations; its generals play war games involving the recapture of the Baltic states. These are familiar tactics, but a whole new breed of Kremlin dirty tricks is still more sinister. The cyber-attacks on Estonia in May 2007 showed Russia was ready to wipe a country off the online map. Russiais stitching up Europe's gas market, giving it huge influence both within and on Europe.

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