Simplistic but fairly specific approach to forecasting. ( )

Great book. The author clearly teaches how to properly select a forecasting method based upon the context of the forecasting effort. ( )

Future Savvy was the most stimulating futures book I read in 2009. I was put off at first; it sets itself up as a book about forecasting, and I am sceptical about this (you learn early in futures work that all forecasts are wrong, except for the ones which are right for the wrong reasons). But businesses and governments live by forecasts, and as you go further in, you discover that Adam Gordon’s intent is to make us appreciate the limits of forecasting.

There are good chapters on the nature of bias (social and personal), on why technology-led forecasts are so often wrong, and a reminder that the ‘blockers’ of change can be as influential as the ‘drivers of change’. Unlike some futures books, it is also clear and well-written.

It ends with a couple of chapters which are designed to improve the quality of our thinking about the future. The first takes some actual forecasts and interrogates their assumptions and gaps. (The forecast for the US housing market to 2013 by the US Homeownership Alliance is self-serving and spectacularly wrong). The second has a useful set of questions the reader can use to test the value of a forecast. As he concludes,

"Good forecasting is as much about seeing what won’t change in the future. Even in fast-moving situations, not everything will change."

Review by Andrew Curry from The Futures Company blog: http://blog.thefuturescompany.com ( )