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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (2009)

por George Friedman

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9714116,159 (3.36)12
Utilizing 2000-year-old geopolitical models, expert weather forecaster George Friedman reviews major historical changes and predicts what changes await humanity in the 21st Century.
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Somethings to think about, but it's just supposition as to what the future might look like, what countries will gain in power and influence, and theories about future wars. Kind of interesting, but unless I can fast forward 100 years, there's no way to judge how accurate Friedman's views might be. ( )
  rsutto22 | Jul 15, 2021 |
I listened to this audiobook that I bought months ago at the library used book store. There were eight discs and it took 9 1/2 hours. I think I paid $1.00 for it. The whole set was lost in the house for a long time. I think this was the first time I bought a used audiobook. It was interesting to read about the author's ideas of what the future might hold. ( )
  MrDickie | May 8, 2021 |
You know those movies where the hero pushes a giant stack of chips onto 32 black and say "let it ride." And people come from all over the casino to see what the outcome will be because My God! this guy has some balls on him to bet that much money on a single spin! This book is like that.

I was really divided on my reactions to this. First I found it had tons of facts and figures that I had never heard before and so really enjoyed it. Either there is a ton of good research in here or its a baffle'em with bullshit factoid storm. And while the great times approach to history was a bit depressing because it make people into little cogs in a machine, it was also kind of fun too because the machine is like one of those contraptions from Rube Goldberg.

I love alternate history. Like alternate history, the book had tons of ideas to work from. The what if aspect is deeply appealing to me. And this book is like a huge alternate/future history series with all the characters and narrative stripped out. A budding scifi writer could just spend a career filling in the story- wannabe Heinlein future historians take note!

On the downside, the author tends to start out saying that history has a tendency to repeat itself, only he puts it much more scholarly, then when predicting some fact, appeals to the fact that history repeats itself as proof its a good prediction. One or the other should probably have been edited out.

More troubling is the lack of mention of the effects of global warming or the development of bipedal drones or any real technological change- although there is a large section in the middle on space which I'll get to directly. You know that old saying, all things being equal? Its typically used prior to making some random statement which everyone knows isn't true because nothing is ever equal. So not paying attention to real technological change is a pretty big strike.

Of course, I'm sure you want to know if I think the predictions are accurate. I haven't the faintest idea. I'm not an expert in global thermo-geo-politics. I only have better than average knowledge on two areas: space and computers (surprise!)

Of space, I have to say, he shows a star warsian level of knowledge. Of course spaceships fly in curves! One small exchange of satellite killers will close off leo for the foreseeable future, coming or going, ship or beam. You are not going to fight a battle through a screen of debris circling the earth. So I have to dismiss the entire middle section as nonsense.

Computers are largely relegated to afterthoughts with the typical, for his age, misunderstanding of what they can and can't do. He ignores the effect the internet is having on the world. He dismisses the concept of what we now call and the Arab Spring early on saying its just not possible. Oops! There is a howler about how the internet was built by the defense department instead of private industry because of the costs involved.

Outside of that there is a book apparently from the late 80s predicting a war with Japan so I'm inclined to go with my first reaction which is to say a hell of a nice framework for a alternate/future history series. So I give it three stars on the merit of being fun to read and chock full of factoids for me to research and then Facebook out some well actuallys (I *live* for well actuallys).

Of course having said that 32 black does come up from time to time... ( )
  frfeni | Jan 31, 2021 |
A truly inane book about geopolitical forecasting of the next 100 years. Peter Zeihan makes every good argument in this book better, from an economic vs. military perspective. ( )
  octal | Jan 1, 2021 |
An interesting read, though as you would expect, it becomes more difficult to imagine the further out in time the author goes.

The book focuses on geopolitics and the impact of geopolitics on war strategy. The author looks back in history to frame his geopolitics, and thus misses the technological dimensions of war strategy that we see today in Russia's "meddling" in the elections of multiple countries. Geography may be destiny, but I suspect other dimensions are more important than the author cares to acknowledge, or to incorporate into his thesis.

Regardless, there is a lot to think about in this book, and many of the topics he discusses you can see playing out in the news around you. His discussion of the importance of hypersonic weaponry for example seems very timely. ( )
  stevrbee | Nov 7, 2020 |
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Utilizing 2000-year-old geopolitical models, expert weather forecaster George Friedman reviews major historical changes and predicts what changes await humanity in the 21st Century.

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