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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of…
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets… (original 2001; edição 2008)

por Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Autor)

Séries: Incerto (1)

MembrosCríticasPopularidadeAvaliação médiaMenções
3,630542,657 (3.89)32
This work has shaken Wall Street thanks to its contention that much of what people perceive as skill playing the markets is often nothing more than luck.
Membro:richardSprague
Título:Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
Autores:Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Autor)
Informação:Random House (2008), Edition: Updated, 368 pages
Colecções:A sua biblioteca
Avaliação:*****
Etiquetas:Nenhum(a)

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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets por Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001)

Adicionado recentemente porRussellGesling, graphianixie, IngNorris, biblioteca privada, richpoirier11, KLewchuk, shalinisinha
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Fooled by Randomness is a short book that has triggered a lot of discussion in some circles and I can see why. It's very provocative and the author has a air of superiority that can easily make you want to disagree just because he is annoying.

The theme of the book is this:

1. You cannot prove that success in markets is not luck or that the movement of markets is not random.

2. In the random set are included extraordinary events with very low probability.

3. If the markets are random, then the successful people at trading are probably just lucky and we should not give them any attention because their luck will eventually run out anyway.

My criticism to this book, apart from the literary style, is that it is based on hypothetical premises and if you don't agree or believe those premises are true or relevant, then the whole book loses its meaning. Personally I do believe there are things here to consider, but I would not recommend this book to anyone.

My belief is that there is a large portion of luck in success. Being at the right place at the right time with the right attitude and training to take advantage of the opportunity style luck. Not being at the wrong side of a sudden unexpected event style luck. But there is also a lot of bad skills so when you look at failure, it can be either bad luck or bad skills. Then the other way around, lack of bad skills could be considered a skill. So success has one portion of skill.

Taleb's main argument in the book is that people he knew and that did well, sooner or later lost it all. His interpretation is that when they did well, they were lucky, and when the luck ran out, they were puppets and could not prevent their personal crashes. To me that is a very thin argument. He refers a lot to Daniel Kahneman ([b:Thinking, Fast and Slow|11468377|Thinking, Fast and Slow|Daniel Kahneman|https://d.gr-assets.com/books/1317793965s/11468377.jpg|16402639]) (who in turn refers to Taleb's previous book, [b:The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable|242472|The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable|Nassim Nicholas Taleb|https://d.gr-assets.com/books/1386925471s/242472.jpg|2157806]) but those references are not an argument. You can name drop people all you want, it's still not an argument.

To be fair, there is an extensive literature list at the end and he starts the book by saying he wanted to write a book about philosophy, not a scientific paper. Still, doesn't make it more believable.

In summary: bonus points for pointing out how much of success might be randomness. Points deducted for basing it on ramblings.

I will read [b:The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable|242472|The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable|Nassim Nicholas Taleb|https://d.gr-assets.com/books/1386925471s/242472.jpg|2157806] at some time, because that book seems to have much of what this book lacks.

( )
  bratell | Dec 25, 2020 |
Not what it purports to be, it's mostly autobiographical in nature. Some self-aggrandizement is fine given his job but the book is also full of cheap digs at his colleagues and since I don't really know the author or his friends it's all lost on me. The book starts out with a disclaimer that it will not attempt science or reason (research is hard!) because it's more about anecdotes and gut feelings and then continues to point and laugh at all those pseudo-science done by other traders.

The contempt for people earning less money was also off-putting. I got so used to the praise of people who make and do things as valuable to society in books that touch on economical issues that this view of the world actually managed to shock me. Although some of them were funny:

"He just has a rulebook and, over a career spanning forty to forty-five years, he will just stamp documents, be mildly rude, and go home to drink nonpasteurized beer and watch soccer games. If you gave him Paul Krugman’s book on international economics he would either sell it in the black market or give it to his nephew."

Not only because the author thinks used books are sold on the black market. ( )
  Paul_S | Dec 23, 2020 |
Informed view of randomness and how we oftentimes dramatically disregard it. Author is quite cynical, which was somewhat distasteful during the read, but his points are well taken and thought provoking. Recommend. ( )
  bsmashers | Aug 1, 2020 |
All of Taleb's books are stunningly original, iconoclastic and useful. Worth reading!

On a side note: "THE FOOL" remains my favourite tarot card because of its cool symbolism that I can identify with 🐐🐬🐙 ( )
  AlexejGerstmaier | May 26, 2020 |
Excellent. Recommended. ( )
  ErrantRuminant | Mar 13, 2020 |
Mostrando 1-5 de 53 (seguinte | mostrar todos)
The lesson here for investors is powerful and frightening. How much can you rely on the track records of investment advisers, mutual fund managers, newspaper columnists, or even the market as a whole in making decisions about your investment portfolio? Not nearly as much as you probably think.

 

» Adicionar outros autores (10 possíveis)

Nome do autorPapelTipo de autorObra?Estado
Nassim Nicholas Talebautor principaltodas as ediçõescalculated
Sergio, ChristopherDesigner da capaautor secundárioalgumas ediçõesconfirmado
Welch, ChrisDesignerautor secundárioalgumas ediçõesconfirmado
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To my mother, Minerva Ghosn Taleb
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This book is the synthesis of, on one hand, the no-nonsense practitioner of uncertainty who spent his professional life trying to resist being fooled by randomness and trick the emotions associated with probabilistic outcomes and, on the other, the aesthetically obsessed, literature-loving human being willing to be fooled by any form of nonsense that is polished, refined, original, and tasteful.
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This work has shaken Wall Street thanks to its contention that much of what people perceive as skill playing the markets is often nothing more than luck.

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