National Research Council (21)

ABSTRACT:
This study was undertaken to (a) improve the nation's understanding of the forces that influence energy use and (b) quantify the demand that is likely to result during the decades ahead from specific sets of demand-shaping assumptions. The main focus of the study was on:
• U.S. energy demand to the year 2010, considering the effects of
such variables as energy prices, incomes, population, and public
policies.
• Technological opportunities for saving energy and their socioeconomic
implications.
• Institutional and behavioral factors that can constrain or accelerate
energy demand.
• Policy initiatives consistent with the scenario assumptions.
The Demand and Conservation Panel explored the dynamics and determinants of future energy use in considerable detail, assessing energy consumption patterns for the future while attempting to keep energy program and priority assumptions consistent with national goals (e.g., low unemployment, an equitable and healthy economy, market freedom, environmental quality, national security, and a stable, long-term supply of resources). The objective was not to advocate a moderate or expanded growth in demand as though either were desirable in itself but, rather, to discern the role that energy and other resources would play in providing the basic needs and amenities over the years ahead.… (mais)

ABSTRACT:
The ability of any energy form to meet a substantial part of the nation's needs depends not only on physical, technical, and economic considerations, but on social and political ones as well. It is necessary, therefore, to have adequate reserves and resources, along with economic and environmentally acceptable methods of extracting them, converting them to usable energy, and transporting that energy to its ultimate consumer. These basic conditions, however, are not enough. Political decisions, policies, and programs based on societal consensus can facilitate or hinder the use of an energy source no matter what its technical or economic advantages may be. For example, the procedures of the Nuclear Regulatory are especially important to the future of nuclear power. The pricing policies of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission are vital in balancing the supply and demand for natural gas. For coal the legal standards for sulfur oxide emissions will determine the relative demand for low-sulfur western coal and coal from the East, with its generally higher sulfur content; in fact, emission standards at some level could substantially retard the country's shift to relatively abundant coal from oil and natural gas, which are growing scarcer in relation to demand. Price controls on domestic oil and gas have encouraged their use beyond that justified by their real market value, and at the same time have discouraged development of new supplies. Of additional concern to potential suppliers or investors is that regulatory standards be consistent and predictable, as well as providing benefits consistent with their costs. Consistency and predictability are of prime importance, even if it means that the restrictions are initially more stringent than industry and investors would like them. These and similar considerations will determine what combination of energy sources will be most economical, efficient, and politically acceptable in the future, and thus what will be available.… (mais)

This generally-readable government report makes three major suggestions to improve the National Weather Service to make it "second to none." The first is to concentrate on the NWS's core areas, including improving their forecasting equations and upgrading incrementally rather than in huge system-wide (and decades-long) projects. The second is to consider streamlining, with hints this committee wanted to consolidate some of the 122 weather forecast offices around the country. The third is not to fight private industry, but instead partnering with the other private companies in the weather field. Like most governmental reports, this one suffers from too many abbreviations -- sometimes the abbreviation appears before its definition -- but there is a handy appendix in the back. Some interesting ideas proposed; we'll see if they are actually implemented.

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LT Haiku:

Forecasting is quite
important but requires
huge infrastructure.… (mais)