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The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse

por Mohamed El-Erian

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"Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian, one of the world's most influential economic thinkers and the New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestselling author of When Markets Collide, has written a roadmap to what lies ahead and the decisions we must make now to stave off the next global economic and financial crisis. Our current economic path is coming to an end. The signposts are all around us: sluggish growth, rising inequality, stubbornly high pockets of unemployment, and jittery financial markets, to name a few. Soon we will reach a fork in the road: One path leads to renewed growth, prosperity, and financial stability, the other to recession and market disorder. In The Only Game in Town, El-Erian casts his gaze toward the future of the global economy and markets, outlining the choices we face both individually and collectively in an era of economic uncertainty and financial insecurity. Beginning with their response to the 2008 global crisis, El-Erian explains how and why our central banks became the critical policy actors--and, most important, why they cannot continue is this role alone. They saved the financial system from collapse in 2008 and a multiyear economic depression, but lack the tools to enable a return to high inclusive growth and durable financial stability. The time has come for a policy handoff, from a prolonged period of monetary policy experimentation to a strategy that better targets what ails economies and distorts the financial sector--before we stumble into another crisis. The future, critically, is not predestined. It is up to us to decide where we will go from here as households, investors, companies, and governments. Using a mix of insights from economics, finance, and behavioral science, this book gives us the tools we need to properly understand this turning point, prepare for it, and come out of it stronger. A comprehensive, controversial look at the realities of our global economy and markets, The Only Game in Town is required reading for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in the future. Advance praise for The Only Game in Town "Mohamed El-Erian has had an extraordinary career as an investment analyst, investor, and market commentator. His 'new normal' concept was prescient, provocative, and has proven out. Agree or disagree, his go-forward thoughts contained in this bracing book are well worth considering."--Lawrence H. Summers, former secretary of the U.S. Treasury "Achieves the nearly impossible: It takes complex financial issues and events and makes them both enlightening and entertaining. It's a must-read for anyone who cares about the global economy and its future."--Jack Welch "May well be the only book you need to read on how the global financial system works, the serious trouble we may be in, and what to do about it. El-Erian's gift for clarity and his use of compelling examples make important economic issues accessible."--Anne-Marie Slaughter, president and CEO, New America "The job of policymakers is mind-bogglingly hard. Who better than Mohamed El-Erian, with his knowledge of markets, his knowledge of policy, and his brilliant mind, to help organize their (and our) thoughts."--Olivier Blanchard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics "Today's global economy is beset by low growth and rising inequality. By looking at the tools now being used by the world's major central banks, Mohamed El-Erian shows how we can instead promote inclusive economic growth. This is a must-read from one of the most astute financial analysts of our time."--Walter Isaacson, author of Steve Jobs"-- "Our current economic path is coming to an end. Where we go when we reach this inflection point - toward renewed growth and prosperity, or toward increased malaise and financial chaos - is not pre-destined. It is up to us; to our assessment of the situation and our actions, both as individuals and collectively. Now El-Erian, one of the most influential and highly regarded thinkers in the world, provides us with a diagnosis and roadmap to understanding where we are today, how and why our central banks have become the essential actors in the current global economy, but cannot remain so, and where we can - indeed, should and must - go from here as individual investors, households, economies, societies, and governments"--… (mais)
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Authored by a "Senior Fellow" at my alma mater I felt obligated to understand him a bit. An enthusiastic writer, he surveys the issues surrounding the 2008 financial crash and its aftermath, concluding that the critical role played by Central Banks is no longer ideal and that new approaches are needed to preserve society.

I found his arguments fairly mainstream and unexceptional, particularly in light of all that's happened since he wrote in 2016.
  richardSprague | Mar 22, 2020 |
The Only Game in Town is an exploration of central banks in the economy. The brilliant Mr. El-Erian sees a coming crisis. One that can be avoided, but we must take action to avoid it.

He lauds the Federal Reserve and The European Central Bank for taking decisive steps to stop the financial crisis of 2008. The central banks created liquidity and propped up the financial system and financial institutions. The central banks continued their work to heal the economies as countries entered the Great Recession and slowly crawled back out.

Mr. El-Erian points out that central banks have a very limited set of tools. Its up to the political leaders to use their broader set of tools to create and implement programs that will fix the lagging economies. If not, the crisis will come.

The Federal Reserve is keeping the key interest rates low to stimulate the economy. That is resulting in asset bubbles as investors and companies pile on cheap debt. It is hurting long term investors who are far to one side on the risk curve looking for safe returns.

With its limited set of tools, the Federal Reserve is not able to create inclusive growth. It's not able to invest in infrastructure and education. It's up to the political system. The political system is failing us. Congress went 5 years without passing a budget, one of its core duties.

The Only Game in Town is both hopeful and pessimistic at the same time. Its well worth your time to pick up a copy and read. ( )
  dougcornelius | Apr 19, 2016 |
Central banks are forever fighting today’s war with yesterday’s weapons. Every recession is different, and central banks have to worry and flail their way back to a smoother ride, because this time is different. We’ve seen money supply tools come and go, interest rate tools lose their impact and of course, regulation all but disappear. The current tool is QE, necessary because so much of the money supply is beyond the control of the Fed. It will probably prove outmoded next time.

The meat of the book is ten short chapters summarizing ten factors that demonstrate how weak our economies are. None of them is news. This is standard fodder for pundits everywhere. Things like unemployment, inequality and so on. Then there are four policy prescriptions, all commonly discussed, and none likely to happen.

And that’s the problem with the book – nothing new. We already know that everything is out of whack. Stockmarkets rise on bad news. Company shares improve on layoff announcements. Markets fall with the decrease in the price of oil. The US is at full employment, but 40% of working age Americans have no job. Despite record trading numbers, liquidity is one of the highest risks. Banks trade government bonds rather than lend to business. Corporates see more value buying back their shares than investing in their businesses. The distortions are enormous. And it’s the central bank that did this, because its tools are wrong.

About 140 pages in, El-Erian finally hits the nail on the head, calling for governments to reject the financial engineering that has opened gaping holes for big finance to exploit, and instead focus on economic growth policies so the markets will respond (more) rationally.

But while economists and bankers argue about the significance of cyclical and secular drivers, they’re still in little enders vs big enders hell. The view from above is completely different. Until and unless political leaders rein in the banks’ ability to create money at will and grow too big to fail, this period will continue. And central bankers will not have tools to do their job.

El-Erian spends a great deal of time referring to an upcoming T, where a choice of left or right will be made. The wrong choice could lead to recession or worse. The right choice could lead to more of the same or better. There is nothing special going on here. We all face these decisions continually. We constantly make the wrong choice, and muddle through somehow. The insight here is minimal.

A book by Mohamed El-Erian should offer uncommon depth and uncommon insight, if not uncommon proposals. The Only Game In Town is merely common. It is superficial punditry; necessary for some, but disappointing from El-Erian.

David Wineberg ( )
  DavidWineberg | Dec 17, 2015 |
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"Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian, one of the world's most influential economic thinkers and the New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestselling author of When Markets Collide, has written a roadmap to what lies ahead and the decisions we must make now to stave off the next global economic and financial crisis. Our current economic path is coming to an end. The signposts are all around us: sluggish growth, rising inequality, stubbornly high pockets of unemployment, and jittery financial markets, to name a few. Soon we will reach a fork in the road: One path leads to renewed growth, prosperity, and financial stability, the other to recession and market disorder. In The Only Game in Town, El-Erian casts his gaze toward the future of the global economy and markets, outlining the choices we face both individually and collectively in an era of economic uncertainty and financial insecurity. Beginning with their response to the 2008 global crisis, El-Erian explains how and why our central banks became the critical policy actors--and, most important, why they cannot continue is this role alone. They saved the financial system from collapse in 2008 and a multiyear economic depression, but lack the tools to enable a return to high inclusive growth and durable financial stability. The time has come for a policy handoff, from a prolonged period of monetary policy experimentation to a strategy that better targets what ails economies and distorts the financial sector--before we stumble into another crisis. The future, critically, is not predestined. It is up to us to decide where we will go from here as households, investors, companies, and governments. Using a mix of insights from economics, finance, and behavioral science, this book gives us the tools we need to properly understand this turning point, prepare for it, and come out of it stronger. A comprehensive, controversial look at the realities of our global economy and markets, The Only Game in Town is required reading for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in the future. Advance praise for The Only Game in Town "Mohamed El-Erian has had an extraordinary career as an investment analyst, investor, and market commentator. His 'new normal' concept was prescient, provocative, and has proven out. Agree or disagree, his go-forward thoughts contained in this bracing book are well worth considering."--Lawrence H. Summers, former secretary of the U.S. Treasury "Achieves the nearly impossible: It takes complex financial issues and events and makes them both enlightening and entertaining. It's a must-read for anyone who cares about the global economy and its future."--Jack Welch "May well be the only book you need to read on how the global financial system works, the serious trouble we may be in, and what to do about it. El-Erian's gift for clarity and his use of compelling examples make important economic issues accessible."--Anne-Marie Slaughter, president and CEO, New America "The job of policymakers is mind-bogglingly hard. Who better than Mohamed El-Erian, with his knowledge of markets, his knowledge of policy, and his brilliant mind, to help organize their (and our) thoughts."--Olivier Blanchard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics "Today's global economy is beset by low growth and rising inequality. By looking at the tools now being used by the world's major central banks, Mohamed El-Erian shows how we can instead promote inclusive economic growth. This is a must-read from one of the most astute financial analysts of our time."--Walter Isaacson, author of Steve Jobs"-- "Our current economic path is coming to an end. Where we go when we reach this inflection point - toward renewed growth and prosperity, or toward increased malaise and financial chaos - is not pre-destined. It is up to us; to our assessment of the situation and our actions, both as individuals and collectively. Now El-Erian, one of the most influential and highly regarded thinkers in the world, provides us with a diagnosis and roadmap to understanding where we are today, how and why our central banks have become the essential actors in the current global economy, but cannot remain so, and where we can - indeed, should and must - go from here as individual investors, households, economies, societies, and governments"--

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